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Monsoon to strengthen after mei-yu front in China weakens

Pune: Half of June is over, but the monsoon's performance across India so far has been disappointing. At 25%, there are glaring rainfall deficits not only in the entire country but also in the regions where it has already set in. South peninsular India currently shows a -31% rain deficit, and central India a 60% shortfall.
The monsoon is yet to cover many parts of central India. Normally, it covers parts of Odisha, Jharkhand, and Bihar by June 15. The monsoon current has remained sluggish, top weather experts told on Thursday. 
A top climate expert from India said the active mei-yu (Chinese for 'plum rains') front is dragging significant moisture from the Indian region, resulting in heavy rainfall over parts of China and even in parts of northeast India, and once this front weakens, the southwest monsoon could pick up strength around next week.
DS Pai, director of the Institute of Climate Change Studies, the government of Kerala, said that the unfavorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase is also responsible for the country's current below-normal rainfall.
"MJO is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon that affects weather activities across the globe. As MJO moves to its second and third phases, rainfall activity over India will increase. The monsoon current in India is on its way to getting organized," Pai said.
Rajendra Jenamani, a scientist at National Weather Forecasting Centre in the India Meteorological Department said the last 24-hour rainfall till Thursday morning has been up to 9mm as against 6mm, with record-breaking rain in Cherrapunji and Mawsynram.
"On Wednesday, Cherrapunji received 811.6mm, the highest after 1995's record for June. Mawsynram also received the fifth-highest 24-hour rainfall in the month of June recorded on Wednesday," he added.
The rainfall deficiency trend in northwest India continues from the pre-monsoon season. "There is no particular issue with the monsoon's progress, only that its advance is happening without very heavy rain in some parts. But, the advance process is already on were widespread rains are occurring, with wind and clouding criteria also being fulfilled," Jenamani said. GP Sharma, president of Skymet Weather Services, said the monsoon current seems to be weak, running on its own internal energy right now, with no external drivers like low pressures, west coast trough, and the monsoon trough and the monsoon trough to strengthen it. Monsoon's onset over northwest India has not taken place yet.

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