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Monsoon may set in early over Kerala any time after May 20

Pune: The monsoon could arrive in Kerala any time after May 20 and before its normal onset date of June 1.
Indications of this effect came from the IMD's latest extended range forecasts (ERF), generated using the Multi-Model Extended Range Prediction System developed at the Pune-based IITM.
"As per the four-week extended-range forecast for May 5-June 1, the monsoon onset over Kerala could take place any time after May 20. In the last ERF too, which was released on April 28, the May 19-25 period was showing an increase in rainfall activity over Kerala. If the ERF next week also shows similar conditions over Kerala after May 20, one could say with some certainty that the onset over the coastal state could take place before time," a top expert from IITM told.
The latest ERF is for May 5-11 (week 1), May 12-18 (week 2), May 19-25 (week 3), and May 26-June 1 (week 4).
The extended range forecasts (ERF) also showed that around mid-May, parts of northwest India could experience heatwave conditions.
"For now, indications for an early onset over Kerala are visible. A cyclonic storm is going to form over the east-central Bay of Bengal. It is likely to help strengthen monsoon flow over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. As per the latest ERF, this system is unlikely to hamper the monsoon flow around the third week because it would have already lost steam by then," the expert said.
Scientists, however, said the ERF skill level gradually decreases from the third week. Therefore, observations from "week 3" should be considered with caution.
Dr. M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences, told, "The ERF accuracy tends to decrease in the third and fourth weeks, but it still indicates that once the cyclone moves away from the Indian mainland, the monsoon could pull up speed and its current could gradually reach Kerala. Early indications thus show that the onset over Kerala could be a little earlier than the normal date, by a couple of days or a few days before June 1."

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