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Monsoon may hit Kerala on May 27, five days early

New Delhi/Pune: The onset of the southwest (summer) monsoon over Kerala is likely to be on May 27-four days earlier than its normal date of onset on June 1.
The arrival of the monsoon marks the beginning of the rainy season in the next one-and-a-half month.
A day after hinting at the early onset of monsoon this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said, "The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on May 27 with a model error of _+ days." It claimed that its operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 17 years (2005-2021) were proved to be correct except in 2015.
India is expected to receive 'normal' to 'above normal' rainfall
The last time monsoon made an onset over Kerala earlier than May 27 was in 2009 when it had advanced over the coastal state on May 23. IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, "Strong cross-equatorial flow is expected during the time when the onset over Kerala is expected this year. There is also a possibility of the low pressure or a circulation developing over the Bay of Bengal around next week, which may enhance the cross-equatorial wind flow."
Referring to the status of the 2022 southwest monsoon and advance over the Andaman Sea, the Met department said, "As per the normal date of monsoon onset/progress, the southwest monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea around May 22. In association with enhanced cross-equatorial winds, conditions are becoming favorable for the advance of the southwest monsoon (this year) into the South Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands, and some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, around May 15."
It, however, underlined that as per the past data, there is no association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country, The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about 7 days.
It will be the fourth consecutive year when India is expected to receive 'normal' to 'above normal' southwest (summer) monsoon rainfall. According to the forecast, there is a 60% forecast probability of good rainfall.

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